After two consecutive years of swampy rainfall in India, monsoon 2016 is predicted to be good as the country will likely receive 106 pc rainfall.
Amidst drought and serious drinking water problems in many regions of India, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said that this year’s monsoon season is likely to bring good rainfall.
According to IMD, rainfall between June and September is likely to be 106 pc of the Long Period Average (LPA) and this season, the entire country is anticipated to receive about 94 cm of rainfall.
The forecast brought boundless joy to the country that has been witnessing drought and scarce rainfall during the monsoon season for two continuous years.
“After two successive years of deficient rainfall in India, monsoon 2016 is expected to be good and the country will receive 106 pc rainfall,” said LS Rathore, Director General, IMD, in a press conference.
L S Rathore also added that the rainfall is likely to be evenly distributed over the entire country and the Marathwada region, which is experiencing the worst impact of drought, is also likely to receive good rainfall during the monsoon. “Only the northeastern region and some parts of southeastern peninsular region in Tamil Nadu are likely to receive relatively less rainfall,” he said.
In 2014 and 2015, the monsoon produced only 88 pc and 86 pc rain respectively. This year, there is only one pc probability of it being lower than 90 pc of the LPA. The weakening of the El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean and strengthening of Indian Ocean Dipole are among the main reasons for a strong probability of good rainfall. The El Nino phenomenon, the abnormal heating of sea surface in equatorial Pacific Ocean, was blamed for the sub-normal performance of monsoon rain in the last two years.
“Analysis of previous data suggests that monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole was deficient or below normal during 65 pc of El Nino years. However, during 71 pc of the years followed by El Nino years, monsoon was normal and above. The latest forecast from the monsoon mission coupled climate model indicates that El Nino condition is likely to weaken to moderate or weak levels during the first half of the monsoon season and ENSO neutral condition is likely to get established thereafter,” the IMD said in its forecast.
Economic growth and agriculture
Agriculture contributes about 15 pc to India’s Gross Domestic product (GDP) and employs nearly 60 pc of the country’s population. Agricultural activities are primarily dependent on the monsoon rains as the July to September monsoon delivers approximately 70 pc of annual rains.
This year, India’s west coast and central parts will receive good rainfall, bringing relief for farmers and policy makers, who are struggling with droughts and severe water scarcity in some regions.
An alarming depletion of reservoirs has changed the country’s water economics drastically for farmers, households, businesses and hydropower.
India’s economy could be set for a significant rebound this year, with the rainfall predictions being above normal.