Voters in first round of municipal elections in Paris (Photo: Marc Seviran/Media India Group)
The slide of the mainstream parties across France is expected to accelerate on Sunday when voters across France and its territories around the world head to election centres to cast their votes in crucial municipal elections as they come about a year before the next Presidential elections, slated for April 2027.
The signs of the deterioration were clearly visible last Sunday, in the first round of voting, when the extreme right party, Rassemblement National (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, emerged as the clear leader or primary challenger in several key cities and towns, notably Marseilles, the second largest city in France, where the RN candidate was just behind the candidate of an alliance of leftist parties, as well as many other cities like Lyon, Nimes, Carcassone, Lyon and Nice.
The battle for Paris hangs in a balance
It is only in a handful of cities, where the mainstream parties have retained their hold and in the second round on Sunday all eyes will be on the crucial battle in Paris, the capital, which has been a bastion of the Socialist Party for about 25 years. However, this time around the main opposition party in the Paris Town Hall, Les Republicans (LR), the centre-right party which had dominated, alongside the Socialists, the French political arena for almost 70 years since the end of the World War II, is hopeful of recapturing Paris from the Socialists.
Rachida Dati addressing an electorial gathering in Paris earlier this week
Leading the LR campaign is their candidate, former Minister of Culture and Arts Rachida Dati, who has been campaigning since October last year, focussing her message on the poor state of affairs of Paris, notably lack of cleanliness, deteriorating housing as well as widespread and open use of drugs and of course the presence of illegal migrants camping in and around Paris.
While in the first round, the Socialist candidate, Emmanuel Gregoire, who is hoping to retain Paris for the leftist party, led by a significant margin of over 13 pc over Dati, the equation has changed a lot in the last week as the candidate of an extreme right party, Sarah Knafo, who gained over 11 pc vote in the first round, has withdrawn in favour of Dati, while the extreme-left party LFI’s Sophia Chikirou, who also bagged close to 11 pc votes, has refused to back down to allow the Socialists to retain Paris and the French capital is headed for mainly a three-horse race.
Gregoire has alleged that French President Emmanuel Macron intervened at several stages to ensure that Knafo withdrew in favour of Dati, whose candidature Macron has openly backed, even though his own party is in a complete disarray. With Knafo’s withdrawal, the gap between Gregoire and Dati has narrowed to just about 1 pc and the victory is likely headed to the candidate who can mobilise a bigger number of voters.
Left votes are split in final round of Paris Mayoral poll
Close contests all around
Beyond Paris, the battle in Lyon will also be closely watched where the LFI has announced that it was withdrawing one of its lists for the Lyon Metropolitan Area election, in an attempt to defeat the right-wing list supported by Jean-Michel Aulas, which was well-positioned after the first round. Besides Paris and Lyon, extremely close contests are also set to play out in Marseille, Nantes, Toulouse, Bordeaux and Strasbourg.
As the municipal elections come just a year before the Presidential elections next year, they will provide a clear signal about the chances of the key parties in that contest. Le Pen can certainly take heart from the fact that with each passing election, the French voters and politicians are treating it like any other political force, ending the 75 years of isolation, when dire opponents on the right and left wings of politics collaborated to keep RN out of power. The municipal elections are set to be another step in Le Pen’s ladder as she tries to claim the Elysée in 2027 at least for her party, even if she is finally barred from contesting the elections due to an ongoing case over alleged financial irregularity.