In a significant move to reassess India’s regional aviation strategy, a new ATR study suggests the country’s connectivity push is colliding with economic realities, identifying over 400 domestic routes under 740 km about 400 nautical miles, that turboprops could serve efficiently, potentially adding 35 million new passengers annually and reshaping short-haul flying away from regional jets.
In a press statement, ATR, aircraft manufacturer says that of India’s estimated 4.6 billion annual inter-city trips, only about 3 pc are currently made by air. More than 90 pc of these journeys are under 400 nautical miles a distance range where turboprops offer lower operating costs and emissions than regional jets.
According to the report, India’s regional travel demand already exists but is largely met by trains and buses due to limited airport access and the high cost of flying short routes with jet aircraft.
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ATR estimates that airport expansion under UDAN taking the total number of airports to around 230 by 2030 could bring millions of travellers within a 90-minute radius of an airport, a threshold that significantly increases the likelihood of flying.
Today, only about 30 pc of India’s population, roughly 425 million people, live close enough to an airport for air travel to be a practical option. ATR’s analysis suggests that adding 85 more airports would open access to 1.25 billion annual journeys that are currently out of reach for airlines, raising domestic passenger numbers from about 150 million to 240 million a year.
Crucially, almost all of this growth is expected to come from Tier II and Tier III cities. These city pairs account for 100 pc of newly identified routes and 95 pc of additional passengers in the study. ATR says such markets are characterised by short distances, fluctuating demand and a strong need for low fares conditions that favour turboprop operations.
The report also highlights cost pressures facing Indian airlines. Fuel can account for up to 40 pc of operating expenses and ATR claims turboprops burn around 45 pc less fuel than comparable regional jets on short sectors. This, the company says, makes them more resilient to fuel price volatility and better aligned with the affordability goals of regional connectivity.
The findings are based on ATR’s MobilityMonitor platform, which analysed millions of actual journeys across road, rail and air.
Alexis Vidal
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Looking ahead, ATR forecasts demand for about 210 new turboprop aircraft in India by 2044, driven entirely by regional expansion rather than trunk routes.
“With a need for affordable air travel, and fuel costs set to increase, turboprops are the only economically viable solution to scale regional connectivity profitably,” says Alexis Vidal, Senior Vice-President Commercial, ATR.
“The lack of an airport does not imply the absence of mobility demand, especially in a country with an extensive rail network such as India. With the current airport infrastructure out of reach for so many Indians, it is no surprise that air travel accounts for only 3 pc of domestic inter-city trips. The Tier II and Tier III city pairs driving India’s next phase of aviation growth are quintessential turboprop markets, driven by short distances, variable load factors, and strong demand for affordable fares, and ATR is uniquely positioned to deliver this unique combination of fuel efficiency and cost effectiveness. India’s aviation growth will come from smaller cities, shorter sectors, and an increasingly cost-sensitive passenger base. It is demand that already exists but is largely tapped today by road and rail. Our analysis shows that this growth cannot be sustainably unlocked without turboprops. As the world’s only commercial turboprop manufacturer, ATR is uniquely positioned to support India’s regional development, with aircraft offering unmatched fuel efficiency, economics and versatility,” Vidal adds.