New report warns of immediate climate risks across India’s 11,000 km coastline
As part of its ‘Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021-2040’ report, Azim Premji University in Bengaluru, has warned that India’s coastal regions are entering an imminent climate crisis over the next two decades, with rapidly narrowing adaptation windows driven by rising temperatures, intensifying monsoons, sea-level rise, and escalating risks to livelihoods, infrastructure and ecosystems.
In a press statement, the University says that the report warns that the window for adaptation is rapidly narrowing as the 1.5° C warming threshold is expected to be reached across India’s administrative regions in the near future. The report underscores that climate change is no longer a distant risk but an immediate reality, with 2040 just 14 years away, highlighting the urgent need to restructure infrastructure and governance systems to address accelerating climate stress.
The report notes that climate impacts are already becoming hyper-local and deeply disruptive, with rising wet-bulb temperatures in Kerala, intensifying monsoons in Maharashtra and growing coastal vulnerabilities across regions such as the Sundarbans. It highlights that traditional knowledge systems, including wind-based seasonal calendars, are increasingly becoming unreliable under changing climate conditions.
The report also shows concerns that district-level resilience planning is now essential, as climate risks are manifesting differently across coastal geographies, from heat stress in urban centres to salinity intrusion in delta regions. It calls for a shift from reactive mitigation approaches to proactive adaptation strategies.
According to the report, key findings include India’s average temperatures projected to rise by 1.5°C, with around 40 coastal districts likely to see summer temperatures increase by more than 1°C, while coastal Kerala and Tamil Nadu are expected to experience dangerous wet-bulb heat conditions approaching 31°C levels, considered unsafe for human survival.
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Ernakulam is projected to record the highest increase in maximum summer temperatures among coastal districts at over 1.3°C. Maharashtra and Gujarat’s coastal belts are expected to face significantly intensified monsoon activity, with suburban Mumbai likely to receive nearly an additional week of heavy rainfall, while Surat and Bhavnagar are projected to see monsoon increases of 23 pc and 24 pc respectively compared to historical averages.
Global sea levels are projected to rise by 15 cm by 2050 under moderate emission scenarios, accelerating coastal erosion and increasing risks of displacement and ghost villages in regions such as Ganjam, Odisha. Rising sea surface temperatures at a rate of 0.27°C per decade are increasing the likelihood of more intense tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean region.
In Goa, unseasonal rainfall is already destroying salt harvests within hours while warming seas are pushing fish stocks further offshore, resulting in empty nets for small-scale fishers. In Mumbai, the Koli fishing community reports livelihood disruptions as unpredictable rainfall affects traditional prawn drying practices, and in the Sundarbans rising salinity from frequent embankment breaches is linked to increased skin diseases and reproductive health challenges among women.
The report further highlights that these changes are already impacting livelihoods and ecosystems, particularly in coastal economies dependent on fisheries, agriculture, and informal trade. It warns that without immediate adaptation measures, infrastructure systems, food security, and public health outcomes in coastal India will face escalating risks over the coming decades.
The report adds that the West Coast of India is entering a period of significant environmental transition, with compounding risks from heat, rainfall extremes and sea-level rise requiring urgent policy attention and localised planning frameworks.
The findings collectively underscore that India’s coastal climate crisis is no longer a distant projection but a present and accelerating reality, demanding immediate, coordinated action across governance, infrastructure, and community resilience systems.