COP28 in Dubai made history, would COP29 in Baku make future?

Global climate change meet COP29 that gets underway at Baku in Azerbaijan today comes at a time when political and climatic heat seem to have reached record levels. Yet, there is reason for measured optimism as last year, COP28 managed to reach some landmark agreements despite the outbreak of Israel-Hamas war and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If in some ways COP28 made history, will COP29 make the future?

There is a disturbing contrast between the political backdrop when COP28 was held in Dubai last year and political heat that exists now as COP29 starts in Azerbaijini capital Baku from November 11.

The conflicts between  Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Palestine, witnessed during COP28 have now ruthlessly intensified into regional wars with no end in sight. Savvy preparations and diplomatic conduct by UAE, the eighth largest oil producer in the world, during  COP28 resulted in unprecedented outcome, called as ‘UAE Consensus’. It ingrained a new sense of optimism in the global fight against the climate crisis.

On the eve of COP29, political upheaval caused by post-election results in the United States, the largest per-capita emitter and the second largest absolute emitter of green-house-gases, has not only put the agenda of COP29 in a limbo, but has also engulfed the world in uncertainty about the climate urgency.

A number of world  leaders who were prominent in the recent global meetings like Summit of the Future, the BRICS meet and QUAD are shunning COP29. Many of them now think that instead of dealing with climate crisis, they are better off dealing with their own limited crises amidst a climate of political, self-serving and unfulfilled promises and pledges of financial assistance to developing countries.

While the contrasts in two COPs are striking,  similarities and parallels between  COP28 and COP29 are equally evident from the fact that both COPs involve small country hosts, the United Arab Emirates and Azerbaijan.

What is more, the economies of both countries are predominantly  dependent on the export of oil and gas, the fossil fuels that the world has now agreed to transition away from! Both host cities, Dubai and Baku, are located on a peninsula that juts out into the sea from where the ships carry the oil to the world. The UAE from the Persian Gulf and Azerbaijan from the Caspian Sea.

What more, the Presidents of both COPs are well-educated in foreign countries. Sultan Al Jabar, the President of COP28, is an alumni of University of Southern California and is Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology in the Government of UAE. Mukhtar Bahadur Babayev, President of COP29, is graduated from the Moscow State University and is Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources in the Government of Azerbaijan.

Both are also leaders of large state-owned oil companies. Al Jabar heads Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and has led the efforts to expand solar energy in UAE. Babayev was vice-president of State Oil Company (SOCAR) and in-charge of its Ecology and Sustainability division.

COP28 was also known as the ‘first-ever Global Stocktake’ conference. Global stock-take was a distinct and necessary process agreed under the Paris Agreement to review and assess efforts of GHG-mitigation by the countries and status of financial assistance made available by developed countries to the developing countries. This exercise was critical for assessing the emission reductions achieved globally, fixing accountability and corrections needed for the pace and direction to fulfill the agreement’s goals.

COP28 indeed made history when the countries committed for the first time in 30 years of UN negotiations to ‘transition away from fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, in a ‘just, orderly, and equitable manner’. The very fact that such decision came after the exercise of global-stock take and that too in a meeting in a country whose economy is mainly dependent on fossil fuels was pleasantly promising.

It reinforced the hope that world can come together and forge partnerships to address the climate-crisis. Secondly, the countries agreed to accelerate action on tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements  and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. All actions aimed at limiting the  global warming to 1.5°C above the average global temperature during  the pre-industrial years of 1850-1900. COP28 took into consideration Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC that specifically called for reductions of emissions of 43 pc by 2030 and 60 pc by 2035, relative to 2019 levels, with the aim of achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

The question now is, can the world move forward from ‘Unity in the UAE’ of COP28 to ‘Action in Azerbaijan’ in COP29? A tsunami of other questions will also be bursting on the coast of Caspian Sea and flooding into the negotiating rooms of COP in Baku.  Apart from transition away from fossil fuel world now needs ‘transition away’ from false pledges and empty promises. There is a dire need to accelerate implementation by dismantling the ineffective and non-consequential framework of negotiations that encompass ‘stock-taking and pledge-enhancing’ without a responsible follow-up.

The time has come to move on the top of the agenda in COP29 to establish an ‘International Climate Court of Justice’ to punish and sanction the countries and companies that violate the agreement and do not meet the promises on financing and mitigative action. Punitive actions through international legal framework will trigger result-oriented partnerships, technological innovations and bring down the costs of clean energy much faster.

As is the most immediate and urgent need of the world, COP29 needs to be turned into a real Finance-COP if the developed countries submit their binding financial promissory-notes of pledged finance to developing countries. Over the last two decades, every developed nation has promised to finance and then reneged. It is time to put their promises on paper from which they can’t walk away or try to fudge the numbers.

COP29 should not be the start of yet another set of financial commitments embedded in the decisions of UNFCCC. It should signal undeterred actions to end the era of fossil fuels, to leave no loopholes for delay or inaction.  Rich country emitters must move first and fast-forward. They must fund the mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage in the developing countries, without diluting or shunning away from their commitments.

The US is the largest historical cumulative emitter, having released over 500 gigatonnes of CO2 since 1850, accounting for approximately 20 pc of the world’s total emissions. Far behind is China, that holds the second spot with an 11 pc share, trailed by Russia at 7 pc, Brazil at 5 pc, Indonesia at 4 pc and India at 3.4 pc. Meanwhile, major European nations with colonial histories, such as Germany and the UK, contribute 4 pc and 3 pc respectively to the global total, excluding emissions from their colonial territories.

Science very clearly states that these historical emissions are responsible for present level of global warming, as emissions as they remain in the atmosphere for more than 100 years. There comes the concept of ‘Carbon Budget’. As per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ‘remaining carbon budget’ is defined as ‘the total net amount of CO2 that human activities can still release into the atmosphere while keeping global warming to a specified level, like 1.5°C or 2°C relative to pre-industrial temperatures’. The carbon budget takes into consideration carbon emitted from year 1850, the approximate start of Industrial Revolution, and so far the world has spent nearly 92.5 pc of its total available carbon budget.

On the other side of the carbon budget is climate finance. COP28 concluded with yet another chain of financial pledges for developing countries for reducing emissions, as well as for mitigation and adaptation to climate change and for loss and damage caused by climate change.  COP29 would certainly engage in the debate on the ever-widening gap between financial pledges that are made and that are met. It would also assess the revised  needs of developing countries. The Independent High Level expert group has now estimated that the  developing countries ( China Excluded), need an annual investment of USD 2.4 trillion each year until 2030 for a proper transition to clean energy, adaptation , resilience, loss and damage and the conservation and restoration of the ecosystem.

This financial assistance is enabler for technological innovation and for skill-building to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. However, it must be provided with the strict conditions that drive the countries to meet the goals of Paris climate agreement.

It would be interesting to see how COP29 wades through these agenda midst of political upheaval, regional wars and the general absence of world leaders.

Last but not least, a number of the developing countries, including India and China are engaged in increasing their coal production and using it for meeting their energy needs. The priority for these countries is to make their population self-sufficient and energy-secure in a world increasingly drowned in threats of wars and geopolitical uncertainties.

Even though prices of the solar and other clean energy are falling rapidly, the level of global electricity production by coal and gas has not changed significantly. Countries in COP28 in Dubai returned after making history. Countries attending COP29 in Baku would certainly return wondering the future of that history.

The least that they can do is to ensure that the world does not regress from the little progress it has made and perhaps with a mix of fortitude and fortune, President Babayev can lead COP29 on the road towards a more secure and certain future than where it is currently.