Trading with Trump: Can Modi turn the climate tide?

Smart climate diplomacy by Modi can bring US back into the fold

On February 12 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will reach the United States for his first meeting with US President Donald Trump. Though tariff, trade and migration may hog the headlines, Modi can use the occasion to display deft diplomacy to bring Trump back into the battle against climate change.

After co-chairing the  ‘Summit for Action on Artificial Intelligence’ with his host Emmanuel Macron, President of France, Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, is now headed to the United States for the second leg of his latest overseas tour.

In the US, Modi will hold his first summit with Donald Trump, who was re-elected President of the United States after a gap of four years, in a surprisingly easily electoral victory over the then Vice President Kamala Harris.

The two leaders, who have repeatedly declared themselves to be ‘dear friends’, will hold an intensive dialogue that could end up testing their friendship as the new avatar of President Trump is a man who is in a hurry to destabilise the whole globe with his half thought-out ideas and decisions.

Trade is certainly expected to top the agenda and here the testing point would lie in Trump’s obsession with getting any and every nation to cut its import tariffs on US goods and services, irrespective of the difference that it might finally make on their balance of trade.

In preparation of the meeting with Trump, Indian government has already made some reductions in import tariffs, in the latest budget, on high-profile US products like Harley Davidson motorcycles and there are news reports that some more duties may be curtailed before Modi lands in the United States on Wednesday.

However, it would be colossal waste of unprecedented opportunity for both the countries, if Modi’s talks with Trump remain confined to tariff, trade, immigration, military purchases and such bilateral issues. Modi, after his G-20 leadership and BRICS stewardship has emerged as a leader with much larger role to play at global level, particularly when climate crisis has become the existential threat for humanity. Time has come for Modi to deploy his ‘hug-diplomacy’ to re-set the climate-agenda in wake of Trump’s open threat of abandoning the Paris Climate Agreement.

Despite the gulf that exists in the ideas and public pronouncements of Modi and Trump, there are some precedents in not-too-distant past that should prove as motivating factors for Modi to take some bold decisions. After all, bold but disruptive diplomacies in the past have achieved what was earlier considered as impossible. ‘Ping-pong’ diplomacy in 1970s broke the ice between USA and China, ‘shuttle-diplomacy’ untied the entanglement in the Middle East and even Modi during his first term as Prime Minister of India skilfully deployed ‘chai-diplomacy’ to prove what his mentor Atal Bihari Vajpayee once said ‘You can change friends, not neighbours’. At that time, he had set the relations with President Xi Jinping of China on path of recovery. Indeed, disruptive diplomacy is often cursed with inconsistency, however, they do iron out some of the wrinkles.

Modi, who was elected just months ago for the third time as Prime Minister of the largest democracy in the world, is certainly in position to deploy his ‘hug-diplomacy’. It has potential to cool down  global concerns and threats that are looming large due to Trump’s second term, that has already sent shock waves around the world in less than a month since Trump moved back into the Oval Office.

As he travels across the Atlantic, from Paris to Washington DC, Modi has to quickly switch over from cloudy subjects of emerging ethical risks or dire energy-needs of AI. He has to take deep-dive into human intelligence -HI-characterised by consciousness and consciences that can never be equated with AI. He has the responsibility as the world’s most popular leader as of January 2025, to understand the world’s 5^th most popular leader, President Trump, with empathy and compassion and not based on however media may have analysed Trump and the flurry of Executive Orders that he has issued in the last one month.

Yes, Trump has called Climate Change as hoax. Yes, he won the US election based on ‘drill-baby-drill’ slogan. Yes, he has started deporting illegal emigrants and has begun tariff-wars. But it is downright foolish to assume that he believes in making America great again when the American business, including those run by the likes of Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg, are surrounded by climate-induced wildfires. He as a shrewd businessman knows well that employment in clean energy business is increasing more rapidly than in fossil fuel.

He as an entrepreneur knows well that costs of clean energy like solar and wind are falling rapidly and ‘drill baby drill’ is now becoming more relevant for ‘drilling holes into the revenues and profits’. The upper floors of Trump Tower in New York may not get submerged in floods but houses in Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s estate in Florida cannot escape the flooding due to Debby, Milton and Helene hurricanes. He certainly cannot sell military equipment to countries in Asia, Africa and Europe when their economies are devasted by climate disasters. The Panama Canal, even if acquired by the US, cannot be operated when availability of freshwater that is needed to be pumped in canal to leverage the movement of ships becomes scarce due to climate change!  And he knows that era of winning technology-race only with rich resources has been left far behind having witnessed ‘Sputnik-Russia-moment’ of 1950s and ‘DeepSeek-China-moment’ that coincided with his sworn-in ceremony in 2025 ! He has also understood that ‘Rs 7 per KM-India-moment’ while accomplishing mission to Mars have proved that even small money matters!

The world has not forgotten the images of Modi with Trump in massive sport-stadium-shows both in the US and in India that depicted nothing but bonhomie between two. Modi-moment has now come to demonstrate, why he is the most popular leader in the world.

Deporting illegal immigrants is certainly as per the domestic laws. It does not violate any international regulations either. But the manner in which it is implemented is questionable. Yet, Trump is not entirely wrong when he says that the hidden terrorists within the illegal immigrants are extreme-threats to national and international security. Trump’s decision to increase tariff on imported goods to save domestic manufacturers is at par with the policies of most countries, even though few national leaders make these into high-octane dramas.

India does the same to reduce imports under, the policy of Atma Nirbhar Bharat. Trump is not doing any different. While Trump promotes oil with open slogans, many developing countries including India continue to use coal and justify coal-based power-plants to gain more time for clean energy to become viable. So, none of these acts of Trump can be countered as being totally unprecedented. But Modi can do disruptive diplomacy by forming alliance with Trump that would benefit the planet, without attempting to tell Trump to reverse his decision to  withdraw from Paris Climate Agreement. What Modi can do?

Firstly, he can evoke Trump’s language and highlight business and economic opportunities, along with market mechanisms that are available almost on platter while pursuing non-fossil fuel future.  Particularly, Modi could showcase employment generation by promoting solar energy through the International Solar Alliance. He and Trump can strike bilateral and multilateral ventures as well as research programmes  with BRICS on solar energy, modular nuclear plants, wind mills, biofuels and green, grey and blue hydrogen.

Secondly, Modi and Trump can propose an alliance to mitigate threats to national security arising out of natural disasters, without blaming climate change as the source for these  disasters, even if it is the case!

Thirdly, Knowing that the US can still take part in negotiations even if it is not Party to the Climate Agreement, Modi can propose to form an alliance with like-minded Parties with USA to undertake emission reductions without referring to the Nationally Determined Contribution ( NDCs) that arise out of business opportunities like carbon trading.

Also, the two leaders can announce the creation of a forum of Indian and American tech-giants to form the technology alliance for cutting -edge technologies like space-reflectors for day-and-night solar energy, recycling of the highly-valued materials from  e-waste, nuclear fusion and thermos-nuclear reactors.

The two leaders can also propose partnerships of BRICS-USA  on hydrogen energy with joint ownership of technologies for production, storage, transport and use as well as establish international regime for clean, efficient and nature-based technologies without tying up with Paris Climate Goals.

They can also propose to the G-20+ or even larger grouping immediately after annual UN Climate meetings to cull out the beneficial decisions and take additional decisions that provide economic and social benefits while  reducing  national and international security risks. The advantages of ‘Net Zero’ for social, health, biodiversity and air-pollution issues can be prioritised, irrespective of the decisions in COPs of UNFCCC.

The world witnessed during the first term of Trump a witty and comic body language of scene between Trump and Emmanuel Macron. The media called it “dandruff-diplomacy”. Trump jokingly brushed dandruff off Macron’s suit, in front of photographers and reporters when Macron visited Washington DC, and Macron bravely disagreed with Trump on his stance on Climate change.

‘Dandruff-Diplomacy’ showed Trump’s appreciation of Macron’s steadfast and positive criticism, and probably suggested a willingness to listen. Later Macron addressed the joint session of the US Congress. Trump was taking the risk of allowing a foreign leader to openly disagree on the floor of the highest political chamber of his country. But that showed the selective open-minded dimension of Trump’s  diplomacy. Trump’s trait of firing anyone who disagrees with him, was seen to turn into a language of “love thy disagreement”.

Can Modi get Trump back into that mood and instead of dandruff from each other’s clothes, can the two leaders remove the dust off the Paris Climate Agreement and take the steps outlined in the agreement, but without referring to climate change? Can Modi use his hug diplomacy to take the bug out of the global inaction over climate change?

(Rajendra Shende, former Director of UNEP , Coordinating lead Author of IPCC that won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 and founder of Green Terre Foundation. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of Media India Group.)