BJP’s u-turn on caste census has Bihar polls in mind

Opposition claims credit for forcing BJP to end decades-long resistance

On April 30, the Bharatiya Janata Party ended its decades-long opposition to caste-based census and the ruling coalition announced that the next decennial census would include a caste survey marking a significant policy shift. The decision, approved by the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs, has prompted political analysts to question the timing and motivations behind the move.

In 2024, when general elections were around the corner, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in an interview with News18, a television channel, sharply criticised the electoral manifesto of the principal opposition party, the Congress. Taking direct aim at the party’s pitch for conducting a caste census and socio-economic survey, Modi declared it a completely “Urban Naxal” thought. He argued that if Congress were voted to power in the ongoing general elections, they would not stop at surveys, they would go on to redistribute wealth, “raiding every household.”

Modi’s remarks framed the Congress’s proposals not as instruments of social justice but as a threat to economic security, warning that such policies could lead to intrusive interventions in people’s private lives and livelihoods.

But just a year later, in a political twist that raised more than a few eyebrows, Modi seems to have embraced what he had repeatedly denounced.

On April 30, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw announced that the next decennial census would include a caste survey. The decision, approved by the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs, marked a significant policy shift. Vaishnaw stressed that the exercise would be carried out “transparently,” signalling a newfound official endorsement of the very idea that Modi had dismissed, a few months earlier, as “Urban Naxal” thinking.

Past of caste census

Once considered politically untouchable by the BJP, the caste census is now being positioned by the right-wing party as a legitimate tool for informed policymaking. It now says that the census will systematically collect data on the various caste groups in the country along with socio-economic indicators such as income, education, occupation and living conditions.

If the census is conducted by the end of the decade, it would mark exactly a century since the last such exercise, since India had last conducted a full caste census in 1931 under British rule, overseen by J H Hutton, Census Commissioner.

The 1941 Census, though initiated, was disrupted by World War II, and its caste data was never published. After independence, starting in 1951, caste enumeration was officially discontinued as part of a broader effort to move away from institutionalising caste identities.

From then on, only data related to Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) was collected, leaving out Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and other caste groups. However, states were permitted from 1961 onwards to conduct their own surveys to identify OBCs.

In the absence of updated national data, the Mandal Commission, appointed in 1979 relied on the 1931 figures to estimate the OBC population at 52 pc. This estimate became the foundation for the 27 pc reservation for OBCs in education and public sector employment, which was implemented in 1990 under the then Prime Minister V P Singh.

For decades, the BJP resisted calls for a caste census, framing it as antithetical to its vision of a unified, casteless Hindutva nationalism. The fact that the same party is now trying to take the leadership on caste marks an opportunistic u-turn on its long-held beliefs, with a politically loaded recalibration.

As recently as April 29, just a day before the announcement by Vaishnaw, his cabinet colleague, Nitin Gadkari, Union Minister for Road Transport and Highways, reiterated that caste divisions ran counter to Hindutva’s core ideal of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam the belief that the world is one family. He lamented how this philosophy had been “adulterated” in recent years by divisive narratives. Yet, less than 24 hours later, the BJP made a striking departure from its long-held position.

The timing has prompted political observers to speculate what changed especially since, only months earlier in September 2024, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the BJP’s ideological parent, had publicly cautioned against turning the caste census into a political tool. Until now, BJP campaign slogans and posters actively projected the exercise as a threat to national unity.

Manisha Priyam, senior academician  and a noted political analyst believes the decision is deeply rooted in political calculus, particularly with the Bihar state elections on the corner. According to her, the timing is no coincidence, but rather a strategic response to growing demands for social justice data in a politically sensitive state.

“The caste census was clearly a demand pushed by the INDIA alliance. But let’s not forget, that Nitish Kumar now with the BJP had also called for it when he was part of the INDIA bloc. In fact, even the allies of the BJP support the social justice plank. Bihar, with its legacy of the Mandal Commission and caste-based reservations, had already made the caste census part of its political agenda. So, in a way, the centre has accepted a core demand of the opposition,” Priyam tells Media India Group.

Priyam’s observation reflects a broader trend, the BJP’s evolution over the past decade has increasingly mirrored the social justice demands it had long resisted. Once perceived as a party dominated by upper-caste groups like Banias and Brahmins, by usurping and even hijacking ideas and personalities from other parties, it has steadily expanded its appeal among OBCs, Dalits, and tribal communities. Political observers note that the party has increasingly positioned itself as a representative of OBC interests.

This shift was visibly reflected in the findings of the 2023 Bihar caste survey, which highlighted the growing numerical strength of these communities.

Ranjit Bhushan, a Delhi-based independent columnist, believes the BJP’s decision to go ahead with a caste census shows it is stepping into competitive caste politics. Since OBCs make up a large part of the population, he says the move is meant both to support their upliftment and to win their votes.

“We have to remember that OBCs make up the largest segment of society. So yes, this move is about their upliftment, but it is also clearly about vote bank politics. It is competitive politics, both the BJP and the opposition know the numbers. The roots go back to the Mandal Commission and job reservations. If 50 pc of the population is OBC, it makes sense politically. Everyone wants their votes and honestly, if I were contesting elections, I would do the same,” Bhushan tells Media India Group.

Several political analysts suggest that the outcome of the 2024 general elections may have influenced the government’s decision. Unlike the sweeping victories of 2014 and 2019, the BJP did not secure a simple majority this time, with many noting a visible consolidation of SC, OBC, and ST voters around the Opposition’s social justice messaging. The announcement of the caste census comes at a time when the issue has gained prominence in national discourse, with the Opposition particularly Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, placing it at the centre of the party’s electoral platform.

Opposition supports the decision

Meanwhile, opposition parties have largely welcomed the Union government’s decision to include caste enumeration in the upcoming census. Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi, called it a “first step” and “a new paradigm of development,” but urged the government to go further by removing the 50 pc cap on caste-based reservations and invoking Article 15(5) of the Constitution to extend quotas to private educational institutions. He also pressed for a clear timeline for the implementation.

Congress spokesperson Kuldeep Singh Rathore credited the decision to sustained pressure from the party, claiming it was their consistent demand that pushed the government to act.

“The government has taken this step under pressure from the Congress Party. Rahul Gandhi and our leadership have been demanding this for a long time. While we welcome the decision, it is something that should have happened much earlier. There is no clear reason why it was delayed but it is the right move for the people and for society,” Rathore tells Media India Group.

Despite numerous attempts by Media India Group, the BJP spokesperson did not offer comments on reasons behind the party’s u-turn on the sensitive issue and what it meant for the party’s long-held political and social beliefs.

Implications of Caste Census

Even as the BJP tries to steal credit for the census, political analysts have turned their attention to its potential impact. According to Bhushan, the exercise could play a crucial role in identifying which caste groups have been left behind on a national scale, paving the way for more inclusive development policies.

“In the long run, a caste census definitely helps, it shows which caste groups are still left behind. That is the bigger picture. In the short term, of course, it is about winning elections,” adds Bhushan.

Experts argue that reliable caste data is essential for shaping inclusive policies. According to experts, while information exists for SCs and STs, there is no updated, credible data for OBCs hindering targeted welfare schemes.

Hence, according to some experts, the upcoming caste census could potentially address these issues through a clearer framework. Additionally, it may reshape affirmative action by revisiting outdated quotas, the last concrete figure for OBCs, 52 pc, dates back to the 1931 Census. A more recent survey in Bihar pegged OBCs and EBCs at over 63 pc sparking renewed calls for accurate nationwide caste data.

However, according to Priyam, the real challenge lies in the post-census data collection. If conducted, the process will likely spark numerous claims and counterclaims from different groups, which could ultimately reinforce caste identities rather than diminish them.

“This was last done in 1911, and it has been a long-standing demand. It could help us understand the proportions of different castes, particularly to address the disadvantaged ones and tailor social policies accordingly. But the challenge is in the counting itself. Caste identities vary regionally, what ‘Nayars’ mean in South India is different from Punjab, and even the spellings differ. So, there’s no universal understanding of caste across the country. Once conducted, different groups will claim their status, leading to numerous disputes. It is a difficult task, and the claims will only multiply,” adds Priyam.

However, the caste census represents a notable shift in the approach to social data. While it holds the potential to offer a clearer picture of socio-economic disparities and inform future policymaking, its implementation will require careful handling to prevent the reinforcement of long-existing social divisions.