Embraer forecasts demand for 10,500 small aircraft by 2044

China leads in passenger traffic growth

Brazilian aerospace company Embraer has released this year’s Market Outlook report, forecasting demand for 10,500 new commercial aircraft with up to 150 seats by 2044. Published ahead of the Paris Air Show, the report outlines global and regional trends in passenger traffic, aircraft demand, and cargo conversions.

Ahead of the Paris Air Show, Brazilian aerospace firm Embraer has projected the need for 10,500 commercial aircraft with up to 150 seats, by 2044 in its latest market forecast

In a press statement, Embraer says that it estimates the delivery of 8,720 jets and 1,780 turboprops over the next two decades, valued at USD 680 billion. As per the report, while China is expected to lead global passenger traffic growth with a 5.7 pc annual rise in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), North America is projected to account for the highest number of jet deliveries.

It adds that its overall demand forecast for small aircraft has remained mostly unchanged from previous years.

“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting. In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalisation to a more polarised geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow. We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals,” says Arjan Meijer, President and CEO, Embraer.

Embraer says that the world passenger traffic is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.9 pc through 2044.  Additionally, after China, Latin America is expected to record 4.7 pc growth, followed by Africa and the Middle East, Asia Pacific, Europe, CIS and North America.

The statement says that Asia Pacific is projected to account for 39 pc of global RPK, followed by Europe and North America at 37 pc.

The Brazilian aerospace company says that in terms of regional demand for jets, North America will account for 30.7 pc of the projected 8,720 deliveries, followed by Europe and CIS at 22.8 pc, China at 17.2 pc, Asia Pacific at 12.1 pc, Latin America at 8.8 pc, Africa at 4.4 pc and the Middle East at 4 pc.

The statement adds that for turboprops, Asia Pacific is projected to receive 36 pc of the 1,780 deliveries, while North America stands at 15.7 pc, followed by Europe and CIS at 14.6 pc, Africa at 12.4 pc, China at 11.2 pc, Latin America at 9 pc, and the Middle East at 1.1 pc.