Embraer projects sustained long-term growth in global passenger air traffic through 2045
Aircraft manufacturer Embraer projects global passenger traffic to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.7 pc between 2026 and 2045, reaching 19 trillion Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) by the end of the forecast period. Driven by strong demand for regional connectivity and fleet renewal, the company forecasts demand for 8,500 new aircraft with up to 150 seats worth USD 650 billion, with Asia Pacific and China expected to account for 40 pc of global passenger traffic by 2045.
According to the report, Asia Pacific and China will account for 40 pc of global passenger traffic by 2045, while Europe and North America together will represent 37 pc of total traffic.
Embraer forecasts China to record the fastest passenger traffic growth at 5.2 pc, followed by the Middle East at 4.6 pc, Africa at 4.4 pc, Latin America and the Caribbean at 4.3 pc, Asia Pacific at 4.1 pc, Europe and CIS at 2.7 pc and North America at 2.0 pc.
Highlighting India’s aviation market, Embraer says South Asia, led by India, is expected to witness passenger traffic growth of 6.2 pc annually over the next two decades. It notes that India’s airport network has expanded from 74 airports in 2014 to 163 in 2025, with the government targetting 350-400 airports by 2047.
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According to the report, the government’s UDAN regional connectivity scheme has carried more than 15.6 million passengers, while the number of Indian domestic markets with fewer than 300 daily passengers increased 162 pc, rising from 163 routes in 2016 to 427 in 2025, reflecting growing demand for regional connectivity.
For the Asia Pacific region, Embraer projects the fleet of aircraft with up to 150 seats to increase from 295 aircraft in 2026 to 1,040 by 2045, supported by 1,050 new aircraft deliveries during the forecast period.
Globally, North America is expected to account for the largest share of deliveries with 2,670 aircraft, representing 31 pc, followed by Europe and CIS with 1,870 aircraft or 22 pc, China with 1,470 aircraft or 17 pc, Asia Pacific with 1,050 aircraft or 13 pc, Latin America and the Caribbean with 740 aircraft or 9 pc, Africa with 370 aircraft or 4 pc and the Middle East with 330 aircraft or 4 pc.
The report says aviation growth will increasingly be supported by expanding regional economies, fragmented tourism flows and rising passenger demand for secondary destinations. Between 2023 and 2025, destinations including Valencia, Baku, Tbilisi, Kraków, Tirana, Sarajevo, Cartagena, Da Nang and Kota Kinabalu recorded double-digit passenger growth, highlighting a shift beyond traditional tourism hubs.
Embraer also notes a growing trend towards premium travel, saying households earning more than USD 200,000 annually account for around 25 pc of global travel spending, while millennial household wealth is 20 pc higher than Generation X and 36 pc higher than Baby Boomers at the same age.
